TB Predicts 5/1/10
by Mike Hanson
Someone told me there is a big PPV fight this weekend, did anyone hear about this? Finally we get to Mayweather vs. Mosley. First off I might be the only one who thinks this but kudo’s to Mayweather for getting a better drug testing system into boxing and I am glad Shane went along with it. Too many fighters test positive for PED’s after fights (Chavez Jr. anyone) and in my opinion they are like cockroach’s, if you see one then you missed a hundred.
Also I find it funny that many of the talking heads have been calling for fighters to spurn the alphabet belts and stop paying the sanctioning fees for years now, but when Mayweather does it they jump all over him calling him greedy. The level of unintelligent hate flung at Mayweather is hilarious. We could find out that Mayweather has been helping needy children for a decade and the talking heads would say “we only found out because he wants the press”, PBF could cure cancer and the talking heads would say he only did it for the money. It makes them sound ignorant.
I am only able to do one fight this week because many of the talented prospects in action this weekend have yet to be rated. The most glaring omission is Saul Alvarez. But this is the first American TV showing for Alvarez so hopefully after this fight. The fight between him and Cotto’s brother should highlight a very solid PPV card. Ponce De Leon and Cornelius Lock should be another good one, but Lock is missing from the database also.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. (40-0) vs. Shane Mosley (46-5)
Using both fighters Welterweight rating, PBF dominates the fight winning 76-21-3. Mayweather won most of his fights by UD of course. Over half of Mosley’s wins came by stoppage. I think Mosley wins 3 of the first 4 rounds and then as usual Mayweather will figure him out and dominate the rest of the fight. I will say after watching GBP try to screw Floyd in the De La Hoya fight I except the same treatment, Floyd will win 8 or 9 rounds and have to settle for a split decision. I will be rooting for Mosley and he needs to jump all over Floyd early but I just don’t see him winning.
Bad week last week as I went 1-2 and TB Predicts went 3-0. That evens us up at 15-5 so far on the year. Both of us are at 75%. Jersey Jim is winning easily at 15-2.
Despite being a top-shelf fighter, Mayweather’s style does not in itself draw the much-sought-after buy-a-fight-a-year audience. Floyd sells himself with his mouth and he has done it very well. A promotional throwback to Cassius Clay/early Ali. Love him or hate him but buy a ticket. I agree with Mike on the fight. Mosley has to go all out to win a round- something he can’t do all fight long. Hopefully it won’t be an obvious mismatch early. I’d be happy to be wrong on that one.
So here we go, it’s Mayweather vs. Mosley! Most writers are picking Mayweather, and for very good reasons. Mayweather is younger, faster, difficult to hit, has never been badly hurt and has never lost. When you sum that up, there are only two conclusions you can come to. One, he may be one of the greatest fighters who ever lived. Two, he hasn’t fought a high level of competition.
The same argument has been made concerning Rocky Marciano and exists to this day. The great trainer Whitey Bimstein once said, “Show me an undefeated fighter and I’ll show you a fighter who never fought anyone.”
In boxing, history shows us that sooner or later an undefeated fighter meets someone who “just has his number.” It’s a case of every fighter’s style being unique to a point. The measure, no matter how small it is, is all it takes to create an upset. History also shows us that fighters are human… and getting caught with one punch can turn a whole fight around.
Sure, it’ll would be easy picking Mayweather for the all the obvious reasons… but I’m going to pick Shane Mosley for a few different reasons – some more logical than others.
Make no mistake about, Shane Mosley is an old fighter. At 38, he couldn’t possibly be in his prime any longer. The thing is, I don’t think Mayweather is, either. My logical reasoning behind going out on a limb with this pick is – I think Mosley’s left is going to be the difference in this fight. I think it’s going to affect Mayweather’s rhythm, and Mayweather is a rhythm fighter. Upset the rhythm and the offense goes out the window.
Next, my illogical reasoning behind the Mosley pick – Mayweather is primed for a fall. His finances are taking a hit outside the ring and I believe he’s about to take on inside it as well.
I could play it safe and go with a Mayweather decision, but every once in a while, you just have to go out on a limb.
I was surprised that Mosley looked winded by the the 3rd round of last night’s fights. Floyd looked good but definitely beatable. Mosley looked like a 38 year old fighter who can’t judge distance properly any longer. I miss the Leonard and Hearns days. They would beat all these guys including Pacquiao at Welterweight.
Everyone watching the fight with me, and the boxing ‘insiders’ I’ve talked to since, all made a point of how Mosley got old ‘overnight’. It happens (or was masked by the Margarito win).
Mosley did get old, but Mayweather (to his credit) fought a good fight and even set down on some punches here and there. Although everyone realized Mosley was really pushing the envelope at 38, they also expected Mayweather to play it safe – but he didn’t.
I don’t like Floyd because of his mouth. And he’s definitely not Ray Robinson or Ali (in my book). But I have to give him credit that he went out there Mosley pay for taking chances with clean, crisp counters.
It wasn’t that Floyd was so fast that Shane couldn’t land, it was more like he was taking 3 hard shots in return for every one that he landed.
Mayweather reminds me of Wilfred Benitez – but with more power.
The only fight that matters now for him would be a match against Manny Pacquiao for the “Pound-4-Pound Title.”
For Mosley, this may be what you’d call a “Legacy” setback of sorts. People were downplaying his win over Margarito before, saying Antonio was made to order for him.
Of course, it that was so obvious, it’s interesting that no one suggested that beforehand.
Overall, I think Mayweather helped his case last night by showing that can stand and fight if he wants or has to.
No one will give Floyd any credit, they will all say Mosley got old overnight. Floyd has a moment in every fight where he figures the other guy out. After the second round when Mosley landed two good right hands Mayweather was smiling in his corner. Then he won every second of every round the rest of the way. I have no idea how someone saw Floyd as beatable Saturday night … he dominated the #1 ranked Welterweight.
Mayweather is in a position not all that different from the one Larry Holmes was in years ago. He’s not a popular champion, even though he’s well know. He often comes across bitter like Holmes did. All you can do is keep on winning and hope people change their minds.
http://www.StorNmore.com
Brandon’s #1 Self Storage Facility
The Mayweather/Wilfred Benitez ring style comparisons that some are making seem apt. The bigger difference is in their marketability. Whereas Wilfred never got any bad press that I can recall, his biggest draws came from his opponents found more charismatic by the general boxing fans. Leonard, Hearns, Duran. A case of a great fighter without concomitant great mass appeal.
Wilfred Benitez vs Floyd Mayweather Jr 51-37-12 (100)
Benitez won 51.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 11.65 Decisions: 45 Unanimous Decisions: 26 Split Decisions: 13 Majority Decisions: 6 Stoppages (avg. rounds): 6 (9.50) Knockouts: 1 (11.00) Technical Knockouts: 5 (9.20) Referee’s Decision: 2 (10.00) Due to Cuts: 2 (7.50) Due to Disqualification: 1 (11.00)
Mayweather Jr won 37.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 11.05 Decisions: 28 Unanimous Decisions: 12 Split Decisions: 11 Majority Decisions: 5 Stoppages (avg. rounds): 9 (8.11) Knockouts: 3 (7.33) Technical Knockouts: 6 (8.50) Referee’s Decision: 2 (9.50) Due to Cuts: 4 (8.00)
12.00% of the matches have been draws. Average number of rounds: 11.47
Beating Wilfred Benitez required speed, power and pressure. Even then, it was a though thing to do in his prime. Leonard was able to stop him at Welterweight. Hearns who was a monster at Jr. Middleweight was able to beat him be a decision. Duran lost a decision to him at Jr. Middleweight. Mayweather isn’t aggressive enough to beat Benitez. Manny Pacquiao would probably lose a close decision at Welterweight. A fight between Benitez and Whitaker at Welterweight would be the ultimate chess match.