TB Predicts 4/24
by Mike Hanson
Looking forward to this weekend to help get past the tragic events of the last few days. We have a great Saturday night of boxing with dueling cards on Showtime and HBO. On Showtime the Super Six tourney continues with Mikkel Kessler facing Carl Froch. Kessler is in must win territory while Froch hopes to continue his trend of losing most of the fight but somehow coming out the winner. On HBO we have a rarity, a very intriguing Heavyweight fight. Chris Arreola takes on Tomasz Adamek in a fight that will legitimize the winner. I think it is a must win for Arreola because a loss in this fight leaves him with very few options. Also on the card is Alfredo Angulo against Joel Julio. While I think a loss would hurt Angulo, it would be pretty much be the end for Julio. Julio burst onto the scene but has since lost every time he has taken a step up. A loss here and he is looking at nothing but non-televised fights or being the opponent to rising prospects.
Predictions:
1. Mikkel Kessler (42-2) vs. Carl Froch (26-0)
Kessler wins in Title Bout 51-43-6. The most common win for Kessler is by UD12. Surprisingly, Froch won most of his by decision also. I think Kessler wins this fight fairly easily. I thought Froch lost his last two decision against Pascal and Dirrell but was saved by Nottingham. He was also way behind against Taylor before scoring the last second KO. He gets his long overdue first loss on Saturday night.
2. Chris Arreola (28-1) vs. Tomasz Adamek (40-1)
Title Bout favored Adamek’s new HW rating in this one (despite it being lower than Arreola’s) by a wide margin. Adamek won 61-36-3 over Arreola with the most common outcome being a UD12. When Arreola won it was most commonly by TKO7. As a fan of Arreola, obviously I think this is way off. We will finally see if Adamek can take a HW punch. I don’t think he can. I believe Arreola comes in under 245 and stops Adamek late in the fight.
3. Alfredo Angulo (17-1) vs. Joel Julio (35-3)
Title Bout likes Angulo by a very slim margin 50-49-1. When Angulo wins it is by UD most often. With Julio it was split down the middle between decision and stoppage. This is a tough one for me as I am a big fan of Angulo. I don’t think Angulo can outbox Julio like Dzinziruk and Quintana did and I don’t think Angulo can beat Julio up like Kirkland did. I am going to regretfully go with Julio on this one. I will be rooting for Angulo but my pick is Julio.
I am sitting at 14-3 on the season and Title Bout Championship Boxing is at 12-5, with two different picks this time TB can catch up. Jersey Jim is making a mockery of both of us sitting at 13-1 right now.
1. Kessler vs. Froch: I’m curious to see if Froch is going to go right after Kessler in this one in an attempt to rough him up… or, if he’ll hang back a bit and box a little? Kessler’s coming off a pretty good pounding he took at the hands of Andre Ward and you never know how that can effect a fighter. Still, he was stopped on cuts and not brutally kayoed.
Also in his favor, he’s fighting in Denmark. Froch doesn’t have the head movement and shiftiness of a Calzaghe, nor does he have the speed of a Ward… so based upon all the above, I’m going to take Kessler in this one. Most likely by clear cut decision.
2. Arreola vs. Adamek: I’m an Arreola fan myself and can picture Adamek getting stopped by a barrage of hard punches. Unfortunately, I can also picture Adamek being more active, keeping his distance, and walking away with a close (possibly disputed) decision victory.
The question is, can Arreola move his hands enough to win a decision if he can’t get Adamek out of there? In a 12 round bout (which this is), I’m going to guess that he can and go with Arreola.
3. Angulo vs Julio: Ordinarily, I’d pick Julio, all things being equal. This time around, I’m not sure they are. I’m not convinced Julio is the same fighter since getting pounded by James Kirkland. In his only fight since the loss to Kirkland, he won a 6-round decision against someone I never heard of who had 22 losses. I’m going to go with a fresher, probably more focused – Alfredo Angulo to pull this one out.
I’m looking forward to this weekend, myself. I think it’ll be nice to see the focus switch back from what happened with Valero outside the ring to what’s happening with the current contenders – inside the ring. This weekend will be a nice time to make that shift.
Good weekend of boxing. Arreola was a big disappointment. I put him right up there with Sam Peter and David Tua.
Can’t wait to see Abraham fight Froch!
I ran the Adamek/Arreola bout through TB a couple of weeks ago and was surprised Adamek could hang with his much bigger and stronger opponent. It was a SD loss for Tomaz, all by one point. An early KD was the difference. (I still favored the bigger guy- now he’s promotional toast)
Here’s a TB what-if special: Adamek vs Michael Spinks at heavyweight!
Adamek Spinks is an interesting match-up. It’s doubtful that Adamek would be able to overpower Spinks as Tyson did. Spinks had a pretty good defense. I may have been more awkward than textbook, but the result was the same. Tyson had the blend of speed and power. Tomasz on the other hand has a good chin and recovers quickly when hurt.
In a 12-round fight, I’d go with Spinks by close decision. In a 15-rounder, I’d take Adamek – again, by close decision.
I’d be curious how this fight would unfold if simulated.