TB Predicts 4/17
by Mike Hanson
Starting something new this week as I will talk about the upcoming fights first and then give the predictions. This is a good weekend for boxing fans.
First we have the split site doubleheader on HBO. Kelly Pavlik finally fights a breathing human being as he goes against Sergio Martinez. In the same way that I thought Sergio Mora would be a tough style for Pavlik, I think this fight is Mora times 10. I hope Kelly is back because it would be good for boxing. His loss to B-Hop stopped some big time momentum, but I hope he has learned from his first loss and is a better fighter now. The other fight on the card features Lucian Bute against Edison Miranda. Bute might be the best Super Middleweight out there now, Miranda is always dangerous.
Friday night we have a Heavyweight match on ESPN between Tony Thompson and Owen Beck. Thompson needs to win to stay relevant. Shobox will feature the return of bouncy Shawn Porter, along with another prospect Fernando Guerrero. Both prospects shouldn’t have any trouble with their opponents.
Predictions:
1. Kelly Pavlik vs. Sergio Martinez
In proving that TB can produce “styles make fights” type of bouts, Pavlik has all sorts of problems with Martinez within the game. Pavlik edges Sergio out 48-42-10. The most common outcome for Pavlik is a 9th round stoppage and when Martinez won it was by UD12. I believe Martinez will defeat Kelly Pavlik and I think it will be by a wide margin, possibly even a stoppage.
2. Lucian Bute vs. Edison Miranda
Bute dominates within the Title Bout Championship Boxing game. He won 85-14-1. His most common outcome was a 10th round stoppage while Miranda would win by the same the few times he won. I think Miranda has a punchers chance in this fight but a slim one. I think Bute ends the night early, before the 5th round.
3. Tony Thompson vs. Owen Beck
Thompson wins easily in the game going 77-20-3. Most of his wins were by UD12. When Beck won it was by TKO8. This is probably a snooze fest but I agree with TBCB and I think Thompson wins by decision.
Last time out both Title Bout and I went 2-1. I am leading this season with a record of 11-3 with Title Bout Championship Boxing sitting at 10-4.
1. With two footnotes worth noting: once again Pavlik is fighting a smaller (junior MW) man- Stewart opined on the Hopkins debacle that to look good, Kelly had to fight smaller men. And he’s kept his amateur-level corner. Loyalty is nice- up to a point. By the 4th round they were urging Pavlik to foul Bernard as a stratagem. They were in over their heads.
Yeah I agree fighting the smaller man but Pavlik is Glacier Slow and Martinez is tricky. I will be rooting for Pavlik but I’m not seeing it.
Okay,here we go – getting back on track with remembering to make predictions on time.
First, Pavlik vs. Martinez. I’m going to go the opposite way Mike went and say that Pavlik’s going to look sharp against Martinez and possibly stop him in the late rounds. Unlike Paul Williams with an all-out attack, Pavlik will pick his shots and Martinez is going to find himself in deep waters…. Pavlik wins big.
Next, we have Bute vs. Miranda. Miranda has seen better days and I can envision him saying exactly that to the referee moments after this one is waved off. Bute by stoppage.
Tony Thompson against Owen “What the Heck” Beck may turn out to be a decent fight after all. Sometimes, one big punch turn a shuffle and clinch fest into an interesting night. I hope that happens here. In case it doesn’t though, brew a pot of coffee and make sure you have plenty of caffeine in the blood stream going into this one.
Thompson throws enough punches to beat Beck and possibly stop him inside the distance.
I think you are sitting at 10-1 on the season
If Pavlik is obviously too big, too strong, he could dominate Martinez from the opening bell, ending a one-sided affair short of the 12 round mark. I ran these two on TB, with and without the weight differential. Life and death without it, a blowout with it in effect. We should know early which is the case.
Actually, I’m 11-0. Undefeated… but who’s counting 🙂
Not undefeated anymore!
Yep my bad I went back and looked and you were indeed 11-0 going into this week. I have no idea who on Pavlik’s team looked at Martinez and thought the style matchup was good. I’m a bit of a novice and I saw an easy win for Martinez
Kelly was bigger, stronger…and could never bring his advantage to bear. (In TB terms, forget the weight adjustment)
I saw this as a close fight going in. I thought Pavlik’s natural size advantage would be enough going in. They have a rematch clause in the contract, so I’m assuming there will be part two to this fight.
Tony Thompson blasted “What the Heck” Beck in 4. And I agree, Title Bout really does simulate the style’s makes fights formula very well.
Kelly Pavlik seems slower than I remember him for some reason? I’m not sure if they’ll invoke the rematch clause, but Pavlik needs to be more active if he hopes to revive his career. Coming into this fight, there were a lot of questions about him. Health problems kept him out of a good fight with Paul Williams and now he loses to Martinez.
Right now, I’d rather see a Williams-Martinez rematch at 160.
Looking forward, I’d really like to see Lucian Bute fight the winner of the Super-6 Tournament. He’s really building a following in Canada and appears to be really coming into his own.
Pavlik would do well to fight a custom-made, slow afoot banger- someone akin to Miranda in Pavlik’s breakthrough bout- to re-establish himself in the marketplace.
He should move up to 168 and fight the winner of Andrade vs. Lucas in his next fight … neither are going to be anywhere but right in front of him. If he stays at MW then fight Sturm instead of the rematch.
He appears to have a legitimate out with the weight issue. Being a bigger guy rescues him from the now-deadend MW division.
Is shopworn Jeff Lacy still available? That’s a viable promotion.
Poor Jeff had one of the shortest primes on record. So did Jermain Taylor.
Lacy’s last fight was a loss to Roy Jones. A fight with a newly-arrived SMW Pavlik would be a do-or-die career contest for Jeff. Ditto Kelly. Careers have been resurrected on less. Style-wise it could fly. The supposition would be Pavlik would win by stoppage in a short, slam-bang affair, well positioned for a top-ten SMW match.